{"id":11348,"date":"2021-09-09T10:36:02","date_gmt":"2021-09-09T15:36:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/?p=11348"},"modified":"2021-09-09T10:36:02","modified_gmt":"2021-09-09T15:36:02","slug":"covid-vaccination-rates-and-supply-chains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/2021\/09\/09\/covid-vaccination-rates-and-supply-chains\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID, Vaccination Rates and Supply Chains"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"COVID,<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, COVID-19 is well into its second year of affecting supply chains, prices and product availability around the world. Global trade plays an extremely important role in product availability and pricing with supply chains playing a crucial role in both. In 2020 the COVID pandemic had a significant, negative impact on global trade and supply chains. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the World Trade Organization\n(WTO), global merchandise trade totaled $17.6 trillion in 2020, down 7.4% from\nthe pre-pandemic $19.0 trillion in 2019. The global economic contraction took a\ntoll on global trade, and supply chains around the world were negatively affected\nby the growing number of COVID cases through business shutdowns and the impact\non worker health. The U.S. accounted for $1.432 trillion of global merchandise\ntrade in 2020, down 12.9% from $1.645 trillion in 2019. In 2020 the U.S.\naccounted for 8.1% of global trade compared to 8.7% in 2019. The U.S. ranked\nsecond to China in global merchandise trade, which accounted for $2.6 trillion\nof global merchandise trade in 2020 and $2.5 trillion in 2019, which comprised\n14.8% and 13.1% of global trade, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The table below shows the top 15\ntrading partners with the United States based on the year-to-date total trade\nthrough June 2021. The top 15 countries comprise just over 75% of total trade\nwith the U.S. Although the ranking may fluctuate, in recent history Mexico, Canada\nand China have consistently been the 3 most important trading partners in terms\nof volume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.\nYear-to-Date Merchandise Trade as of June 2021 (billions of dollars) \u2013 Top\nTrading Partners<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Imports can have important consequences\nfor supply chains in the United States. Imported goods can be used as inputs in\nthe production process in the U.S. Imports can also affect the supply of goods available\nto consumers if they are the finished good. Although supply chains have\ngenerally improved in 2021, problems remain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the World Trade Organization, the volume of world merchandise trade rebounded in the first quarter of 2021 as COVID vaccinations became available and the global economy showed signs of recovering. First quarter 2021 global merchandise trade increased 4.3% from the same period a year ago.\u00a0However, trade and economic growth were mixed across countries with generally more developed countries having better growth. According to the WTO, \u201cInequitable access to COVID-19 vaccines continues to pose the greatest threat to the economic outlook since a failure to protect all people regardless of income leaves populations vulnerable to further waves of infection.\u201d Not only economic inequities, but new COVID variants such as Delta created threats to economic growth and recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The table below shows the top 15 countries\nfrom which the United States imported goods year-to-date through June 2021. In\naddition, also shown is the percentage of a country\u2019s population that has\nreceived at least one COVID shot as of the end of August. A project at the\nUniversity of Oxford, Our World in Data<\/em>, compiles data on vaccination\nrates by country. A <\/strong>vaccinated<\/strong> person refers\nto someone who has received at least one dose of a vaccine. Any country with\nlow vaccination rates is particularly economically vulnerable if new COVID\nvariants result in an increase in COVID cases. A low vaccination rate for a\ncountry that supplies merchandise to the U.S. may also negatively impact supply\nchains, product availability and prices in the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The dollar volume of imports understates the importance of\nimports in the supply chain process. If you import a $1.00 part as a component\nfor manufacturing a $100 product, you have a problem if you can\u2019t get that\n$1.00 part. COVID disrupted supply chains in a myriad of ways, through business\nshutdowns, a negative impact on worker health, and resulting product shortages.\nLow vaccination rates for a country from which the\nU.S. imports goods will risk that supply chain issues continue or increase due\nto an increased likelihood of COVID spreading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Six countries from which the U.S. imported\ngoods had relatively high vaccination rates of at least 70% by the end of August\n– China (74.26%), Canada (73.09%). Ireland (73.82%), United Kingdom (70.38%),\nItaly (70.10%), and France (71.03%).  For\ncomparative purposes, 60.70% of Americans had received at least one COVID shot.\nNot surprisingly, typically poorer countries from which the U.S. imports goods\nhad relatively low vaccination rates. Four countries had vaccination rates of\nless than 50%: 1) Mexico, 2) Vietnam, 3) Taiwan, and 4) India. Mexico ranked\nsecond for U.S. imports and had only 44.02% of the population vaccinated for\nCOVID at the end of August. Through June, the U.S. had imported more than $186\nbillion worth of goods from Mexico. Vietnam ranked sixth on the import list,\nwith the U.S. importing nearly $48 billion of merchandise. Vietnam had a\nvaccination rate of only 17.14%. Taiwan ranked ninth for imports and India\ntenth, with vaccination rates of only 41.94% and 35.03% respectively. The U.S.\nimported nearly $35 billion and $34 billion from Taiwan and India,\nrespectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Year-to-Date Merchandise Imports as\nof June 2021 (billions of dollars) and Vaccination Rates<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Our World in Data<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Low vaccination rates for a country\nfrom which the U.S. imports merchandise threatens to disrupt supply chains and\npotentially create product shortages and affect pricing. The top three product\ncategories for imports from each country having a vaccination rate of less than\n50% are listed in the tables below. Products are classified according to end\nuse codes as categorized by the U.S. Census Bureau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top 3 U.S. Product Imports from Mexico<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Top
Source: U.S. Census Bureau<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Top 3 U.S. Product Imports from\nVietnam<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Top
Source: U.S. Census Bureau<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Top 3 U.S. Product Imports from\nTaiwan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Top
Source: U.S. Census Bureau<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Top 3 U.S. Product Imports from\nIndia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Top
Source: U.S. Census Bureau<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Until COVID dissipates, it can have\na detrimental effect on supply chains, product availability and pricing. Particularly\nvulnerable to the spread of COVID are countries with low vaccination rates. Out\nof the top 15 countries from which the U.S. imports merchandise, 4 countries\nhad vaccination rates of less than 50% – Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, and India.\nThese countries are particularly economically vulnerable to any surge of\nCOVID.  However, it is a global economy. What\naffects those countries, will affect other countries. Companies set-up supply\nchains between countries in an effort to minimize costs and maximize efficiency\nand competitiveness. Product availability and pricing may be impacted in the\nU.S. if supply chains are disrupted, and Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, and India may\nsupply parts for goods made in other countries that are eventually supplied to\nthe U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although there were only 4\ncountries with vaccination rates of less than 50% at the end of August, there\nwere only 6 countries out of the top 15 U.S. import partners with vaccination\nrates of greater than 70%. The United States, and 60% of its major import\npartners had vaccination rates of less than 70%. Until COVID dissipates, the economic\ncost and risk to supply chains, product availability, and pricing remains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For further information:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. From Our World in Data<\/em>: Covid Vaccination Rates<\/a><\/li>
  2. From the World Trade Organization<\/em>:
    1. World Trade Organization – Data Portal<\/a> <\/li>
    2. First Quarter Merchandise Trade<\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/li>
    3. From the U.S. Census Bureau<\/em>:
      1. U.S. Merchandise Trade<\/a><\/li>
      2. U.S. Top Trading Partners<\/a><\/li>
      3. U.S. Imports from Mexico<\/a><\/li>
      4. U.S. Imports from Vietnam<\/a><\/li>
      5. U.S. Imports from Taiwan<\/a><\/li>
      6. U.S. Imports from India<\/a> <\/li><\/ol><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
        \"Kevin<\/figure>
        \n

        Kevin Bahr is a professor emeritus of finance and chief analyst of the Center for Business and Economic Insight<\/a> in the Sentry School of Business and Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Unfortunately, COVID-19 is well into its second year of affecting supply chains, prices and product availability around the world. Global trade plays an extremely important role in product availability and pricing with supply chains playing a crucial role in both. In 2020 the COVID pandemic had a significant, negative impact on global trade and supply […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":136,"featured_media":11360,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,7,527,12],"tags":[124,532,305,583,343,344],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11348"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/136"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11348"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11348\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11371,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11348\/revisions\/11371"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}