{"id":11465,"date":"2021-11-23T13:33:04","date_gmt":"2021-11-23T19:33:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/?p=11465"},"modified":"2021-12-06T15:03:09","modified_gmt":"2021-12-06T21:03:09","slug":"the-u-s-economy-like-nothing-that-youve-seen-part-1-economic-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/2021\/11\/23\/the-u-s-economy-like-nothing-that-youve-seen-part-1-economic-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"The U.S. Economy: Like Nothing That You\u2019ve Seen Part 1\u2013Economic Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"The<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The events of the last two years are ones that few Americans thought they would ever see. The performance of the U.S. economy as we enter 2022 continues to be unprecedented in many ways. The gradual changes that typically occur in a normal business cycle for economic growth, the labor market, and inflation were replaced by significant COVID-driven volatility. The pandemic caused sudden and significant changes in economic growth, the labor market, and inflation. COVID created unprecedented economic and forecasting challenges for policy makers and businesses in the United States and globally. While COVID was the driving force in creating these changes and challenges, COVID also magnified structural vulnerabilities in supply chains.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic growth returned in 2021, but the labor market and inflation (including supply chain issues) presented challenges never seen before. This blog will review the economic growth of the past few years and then discuss the nuances and challenges created by the current economy. The blog consists of three parts: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. economic growth<\/li>
  2. the labor market<\/li>
  3. inflation<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Economic Growth<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    After modest economic growth in 2019\nand a significant downturn in 2020, consistent economic growth returned in 2021\ndespite a COVID rebound. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)\ncompiles and publishes Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics, which measures\nthe U.S. output of goods and services and is the benchmark for measuring\neconomic growth. Quarterly GDP growth is usually expressed as a percentage that\nrepresents the rate at which U.S. economic output is either growing or\ncontracting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Looking at the percent change from\nthe previous quarter at an annualized rate can be useful in identifying trends\nand comparing the economic growth of different quarters, particularly during an\neconomic expansion or contraction. However, the annualized rate assumes that\nthe rate of change in the recent quarter would basically continue for four\nconsecutive quarters, with some adjustments for seasonality and compounding\neffects. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Table 1 below shows quarterly\neconomic growth at an annualized rate since 2019 when economic output in a quarter\nis compared to the previous quarter. The table reflects tepid economic growth\nin 2019 followed by a severe COVID driven downturn in the second quarter of\n2020. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) began tracking quarterly GDP growth\ndata in 1947. The 2020 second quarter decline of 31.9% was the worst on record,\nand much greater than the worst quarterly decline during the financial crisis\nwhich was 8.5% in the second quarter of 2008. The 2020 economic recession (two\nconsecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) was the shortest on record\naccording to the BEA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Since the second quarter of 2020\neconomic growth has returned, with annualized growth at over 6% in the first\ntwo quarters of 2021. Economic growth continued in the third quarter of 2021\nbut was tempered by a COVID resurgence. Preliminary numbers indicated that the\nannualized rate of growth slowed to 2.0% while growth increased 4.9% compared\nto the prior year quarter. The increase in third quarter GDP reflected the\ncontinued economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Until COVID wanes significantly,\nboth domestically and internationally, impacts on the U.S. economy will remain.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Table 1 – Percent Change from\nPrevious Quarter in Real GDP \u2013 Annualized Rate<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"
    (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Future economic growth should be\naided by the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package passed by Congress in\nNovember. The package includes funding for building and repairing roads and\nbridges, expanding broadband access to rural areas, upgrading public transportation,\nimproving power and water systems, upgrading airports, ports, and waterways,\nand increasing electric vehicles and charging systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For further information:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1. GDP Growth (and other national data) from the Bureau of Economic Analysis: GDP Growth<\/a><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      \"Kevin<\/figure>
      \n

      Kevin Bahr is a professor emeritus of finance and chief analyst of the Center for Business and Economic Insight<\/a> in the Sentry School of Business and Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

      \"The<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

      CBEI Series: The U.S. Economy: Like Nothing That You\u2019ve Seen<\/strong>
      Part 1: Economic Growth<\/a>
      Part 2: Labor Market<\/a>
      Part 3: Inflation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
      <\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      The events of the last two years are ones that few Americans thought they would ever see. The performance of the U.S. economy as we enter 2022 continues to be unprecedented in many ways. The gradual changes that typically occur in a normal business cycle for economic growth, the labor market, and inflation were replaced […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":136,"featured_media":11469,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,7,527,12],"tags":[124,532,305,343,344],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11465"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/136"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11465"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11465\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11498,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11465\/revisions\/11498"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11469"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uwsp.edu\/cps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}