Although a variety of factors influence the movement of interest rates, the Federal Reserve strongly influences the movement of interest rates through its policies. Through its “Open Market Operations” (the purchase and sale of Treasury securities), the Federal Reserve primarily controls the money supply in the U.S. The amount of money circulating in the economy […]
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A Tale of Two Crises–and Recoveries: Financial Crisis vs. COVID-19 Crisis Part 1: Causes and Cures
The Financial Crisis The United States began 2009 with arguably the worst economic landscape since the Great Depression, an economic scenario that began to unfold in late 2007. A tanking stock market, falling housing prices, increasing unemployment, and an economic recession. The root cause of the crisis – the housing market. A collage of factors […]
More...The Economic Recovery 2010-19: What Changed and What Didn’t – Part 6: Corporate Debt and Collateralized Loan Obligations
Overview First, a quick long-term overview on trends in business debt. The blue line in Chart 1 below shows the amount of outstanding nonfinancial corporate business debt securities and loans from 1945 through the first quarter of 2020. The shaded areas of the chart indicate recession periods. From a long-term perspective, the amount of corporate […]
More...The Economic Recovery 2010-19: What Changed and What Didn’t – Part 5: Funding the U.S. Government – Corporate vs. Individual Taxes
During the economic recovery the split between how individual and corporate taxes comprised total federal tax revenues changed, primarily as a result of the 2018 federal tax changes. Before we review what happened in the last decade during the economic recovery, a long-term view of what has changed. Chart 1 below shows the percentage composition […]
More...The Economic Recovery 2010-19: What Changed and What Didn’t – Part 4: Trade with China … and the Rise of Vietnam
Overview First, a quick long-term overview on trends in U.S. international trade. Chart 1 below shows U.S. net exports from 1980-2019. Net exports are defined as the exports of U.S. goods and services to other countries minus the imports of goods and services from other countries to the U.S. In other words, it shows the […]
More...The Economic Recovery 2010-19: What Changed and What Didn’t – Part 3: Manufacturing Employment
What happened with manufacturing during the economic recovery? Did manufacturing employment rebound during the recovery? Well, yes and no, it depends on how you look at the numbers. First, a long-term overview of what has happened to manufacturing employment in the United States. Chart 1 shows two lines. The blue line indicates the number of […]
More...The Economic Recovery 2010-19: What Changed and What Didn’t – Part 1: Overview
Before the onset of the coronavirus, the United States enjoyed its longest period of economic growth in history – beginning in 2010 and ending in 2020. During that period some things stayed the same, and some things didn’t. This blog series will take a look at what happened to some key economic factors over that […]
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